Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 3774 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 5–11%.

Safest bet that day UA 3774 SFO 06:16 → IAD 14:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2386 SFO 14:18 → DCA 22:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3774 United	SFO 06:16	IAD 14:36	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2158 United	SFO 07:00	IAD 15:17	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 705 United Flight history →	SFO 21:28	IAD 05:47	5%	2%	0.5%	100%
UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	6%	2%	0.5%	91%
WN 3576 Southwest	SJC 22:33	BWI 06:47	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1678 United Flight history →	SFO 08:20	DCA 16:47	9%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:58	9%	2%	0.5%	67%
UA 599 United	SFO 08:42	IAD 16:57	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	10%	3%	0.5%	78%
WN 3547 Southwest	SFO 22:46	BWI 06:50	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 755 United Flight history →	SFO 12:49	IAD 21:17	11%	3%	0.5%	78%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	12%	3%	0.6%	76%
AS 8 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:39	DCA 17:59	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	SFO 14:18	DCA 22:30	16%	5%	0.5%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	96%	89%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 35m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON