Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3182 BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2741 BDL 15:15 → CLT 17:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3182 American Flight history →	BDL 06:01	CLT 08:08	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 2133 American Flight history →	BDL 07:38	CLT 09:50	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 2838 American Flight history →	BDL 11:01	CLT 13:05	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 2741 American Flight history →	BDL 15:15	CLT 17:16	11%	3%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON