Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2594 at 05:27 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 2594 BDL 05:27 → DCA 07:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5058 BDL 19:51 → DCA 21:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2594 American	BDL 05:27	DCA 07:07	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 3081 American Flight history →	BDL 05:35	DCA 07:16	6%	2%	0.8%	57%
AA 5307 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BDL 09:07	DCA 10:48	10%	3%	0.8%	79%
OH 5079 PSA	BDL 11:49	DCA 13:20	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5059 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BDL 15:06	DCA 16:44	15%	6%	0.8%	51%
OH 5058 PSA	BDL 19:51	DCA 21:21	15%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON