Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 364 BDL 08:07 → DEN 10:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 275 BDL 18:22 → DEN 20:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 364 United Flight history →	BDL 08:07	DEN 10:37	7%	3%	0.1%	94%
UA 2239 United Flight history →	BDL 15:30	DEN 17:58	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
WN 4281 Southwest	BDL 15:13	DEN 17:29	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 275 Southwest	BDL 18:22	DEN 20:27	14%	2%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	6h 02m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	BDL 11:39 → MSP 13:34DL 2007	53m Minneapolis	MSP 14:27 → DEN 15:30DL 1025	5h 51m	91%	80%
American Details →	BDL 13:02 → ORD 14:30AA 1408	58m Chicago	ORD 15:28 → DEN 17:04AA 1317	6h 02m	80%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON