Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: JetBlue via JFK, leaving 06:28, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1361 United Flight history →	BDL 08:20	IAH 11:10	6%	3%	0.1%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 46m Dulles	IAD 09:12 → IAH 11:14UA 3920	6h 14m	99%	90%
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → IAH 13:46UA 2767	8h 37m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:18 → IAH 13:31DL 2709	8h 31m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 12:40 → IAH 14:41DL 1307	5h 58m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	6h 07m	98%	86%
United Details →	BDL 16:55 → ORD 18:44UA 2627	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665	8h 39m	96%	84%
United Details →	BDL 08:07 → DEN 10:37UA 364	2h 53m Denver	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	9h 57m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BDL 13:50 → ATL 16:20DL 1082	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	8h 34m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON