Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:51 am at Hartford)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 412 American Flight history →	BDL 05:47	MIA 09:00	5%	2%	0.5%	95%
AA 1905 American	BDL 06:00	MIA 09:13	8%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 57m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 58m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	7h 02m	100%	89%
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 10:57 → MIA 15:19UA 1620	9h 10m	99%	85%
American Details →	BDL 05:37 → DCA 07:16AA 3081	2h 00m Washington	DCA 09:16 → MIA 12:09AA 401	6h 32m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	BDL 17:13 → ATL 19:51DL 2739	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 42m	99%	84%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	50m Dulles	IAD 08:16 → MIA 11:14UA 1073	5h 14m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:23 → MIA 15:19DL 1323	8h 19m	100%	81%
American Details →	BDL 07:08 → CLT 09:13AA 3182	1h 49m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 03m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON