Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2672 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12%.

Safest bet that day UA 2672 BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1408 BDL 13:02 → ORD 14:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2672 United Flight history →	BDL 06:09	ORD 07:54	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
AA 2163 American Flight history →	BDL 07:15	ORD 09:05	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 1456 United	BDL 09:37	ORD 11:18	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 378 United Flight history →	BDL 12:12	ORD 13:57	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 861 American	BDL 12:38	ORD 14:22	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2627 United Flight history →	BDL 16:55	ORD 18:44	12%	4%	0.6%	63%
MQ 3890 Envoy	BDL 18:17	ORD 19:49	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1408 American Flight history →	BDL 13:02	ORD 14:30	16%	4%	0.7%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON