Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5487 BDL 06:03 → PHL 07:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3278 BDL 08:04 → PHL 09:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5487 PSA	BDL 06:03	PHL 07:11	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3278 American	BDL 08:04	PHL 09:43	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 6111 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BDL 06:20	PHL 07:40	3%	0%	2.9%	97%
AA 5997 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BDL 10:47	PHL 12:10	15%	3%	2.6%	85%
AA 6036 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BDL 14:36	PHL 16:00	31%	12%	3.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON