Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3278 BDL 08:04 → PHL 09:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5811 BDL 19:25 → PHL 20:57 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3278 American	BDL 08:04	PHL 09:43	8%	3%	0.4%	no record
OH 5487 PSA	BDL 06:04	PHL 07:16	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
PT 6115 Piedmont	BDL 07:01	PHL 08:26	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
PT 5823 Piedmont	BDL 10:30	PHL 11:59	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 5948 Piedmont	BDL 10:57	PHL 12:29	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 5825 Piedmont	BDL 14:36	PHL 15:52	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 6036 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	BDL 15:24	PHL 16:55	11%	2%	0.8%	69%
AA 5811 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	BDL 19:25	PHL 20:57	11%	3%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON