Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2231 BDL 06:42 → TPA 09:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MX 2442 BDL 08:14 → TPA 11:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2231 Southwest	BDL 06:42	TPA 09:42	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1364 Southwest	BDL 06:50	TPA 10:02	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
MX 2442 Breeze	BDL 08:14	TPA 11:34	7%	2%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON