Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 1874 at 14:00, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1874 American	BGR 14:00	CLT 16:36	9%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BGR 05:45 → PHL 07:40AA 6096 · flown by Piedmont	2h 45m Philadelphia	PHL 10:25 → CLT 12:09AA 847	6h 24m	100%	92%
American Details →	BGR 06:34 → ORD 08:41AA 3683 · flown by Envoy	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 11:46 → CLT 14:43AA 3021	8h 09m	100%	87%
American Details →	BGR 11:16 → PHL 13:13AA 6123 · flown by Piedmont	2h 49m Philadelphia	PHL 16:02 → CLT 17:29AA 3012	6h 13m	98%	86%
American Details →	BGR 13:35 → LGA 15:17AA 4488 · flown by Republic	2h 58m New York	LGA 18:15 → CLT 20:33AA 1942	6h 58m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BGR 05:20 → LGA 07:00DL 5137 · flown by Endeavor	2h 00m New York	LGA 09:00 → CLT 11:10DL 5051 · flown by Endeavor	5h 50m	94%	67%
Delta Details →	BGR 16:22 → JFK 18:09DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	2h 20m New York	JFK 20:29 → CLT 23:03DL 5036 · flown by Endeavor	6h 40m	92%	59%
Delta Details →	BGR 12:03 → LGA 13:45DL 5254 · flown by Endeavor	3h 21m New York	LGA 17:06 → CLT 19:32DL 5047 · flown by Endeavor	7h 29m	98%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BGR 17:01 → LGA 18:44DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	LGA 19:34 → CLT 21:37DL 5705 · flown by Republic	4h 36m	65%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON