Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5504 BGR 07:08 → DCA 09:22 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5516 BGR 16:39 → DCA 18:46 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5504 PSA	BGR 07:08	DCA 09:22	9%	5%	1.3%	no record
OH 5215 PSA	BGR 07:00	DCA 09:13	9%	5%	1.3%	no record
MQ 4060 Envoy	BGR 13:05	DCA 15:11	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
OH 5508 PSA	BGR 12:43	DCA 14:46	18%	6%	1.3%	no record
MQ 4067 Envoy	BGR 17:09	DCA 19:12	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
OH 5516 PSA	BGR 16:39	DCA 18:46	19%	7%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON