Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 4166 at 12:05, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 4166 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	BGR 12:05	EWR 13:57	14%	5%	1.3%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BGR 15:40 → CLT 18:26AA 1411	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794	6h 32m	93%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON