Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3657 BGR 06:44 → ORD 08:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3548 BGR 17:38 → ORD 19:23 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3657 Envoy	BGR 06:44	ORD 08:49	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3509 Republic	BGR 09:27	ORD 11:42	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3683 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BGR 17:46	ORD 19:44	13%	4%	0.9%	80%
OO 4702 SkyWest	BGR 16:54	ORD 19:04	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3548 Envoy	BGR 17:38	ORD 19:23	14%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON