Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2162 BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2484 BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2162 Delta Flight history →	BHM 05:18	ATL 07:19	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 3100 Delta Flight history →	BHM 09:30	ATL 11:34	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 3164 Delta Flight history →	BHM 10:42	ATL 12:46	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 1618 Delta Flight history →	BHM 06:15	ATL 08:24	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2900 Delta Flight history →	BHM 19:34	ATL 21:39	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1017 Delta Flight history →	BHM 12:03	ATL 14:08	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 3012 Delta Flight history →	BHM 14:10	ATL 16:17	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 3163 Delta Flight history →	BHM 16:00	ATL 18:14	8%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 1369 Delta Flight history →	BHM 07:28	ATL 09:34	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2484 Delta Flight history →	BHM 17:27	ATL 19:30	12%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON