Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 960 at 15:29, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 960 Southwest	BHM 15:29	BWI 18:44	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:19DL 2162	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	6h 43m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 23m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:26 → DTW 13:30DL 5505 · flown by Endeavor	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	5h 15m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267	5h 33m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928	5h 38m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	6h 16m	98%	84%
American Details →	BHM 06:05 → MIA 09:07AA 3423 · flown by Envoy	1h 20m Miami	MIA 10:27 → BWI 13:17AA 1010	6h 12m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006	48m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	4h 22m	87%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON