Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5068 BHM 10:13 → CLT 12:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6350 BHM 17:18 → CLT 19:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5068 PSA	BHM 10:13	CLT 12:42	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5048 PSA	BHM 06:55	CLT 09:41	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 6270 SkyWest	BHM 12:25	CLT 14:56	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 5253 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 07:55	CLT 10:25	9%	2%	0.7%	93%
OH 5448 PSA	BHM 15:31	CLT 18:02	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6350 SkyWest	BHM 17:18	CLT 19:48	11%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON