Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5295 BHM 08:10 → DEN 10:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 434 BHM 17:34 → DEN 19:36 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5295 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BHM 08:10	DEN 10:35	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 850 Southwest	BHM 06:22	DEN 08:15	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 402 United	BHM 15:43	DEN 17:46	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 434 Southwest	BHM 17:34	DEN 19:36	14%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON