Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4186 at 05:24 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 4186 BHM 05:24 → DFW 07:38 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5316 BHM 16:24 → DFW 18:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4186 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 05:24	DFW 07:38	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
MQ 3410 Envoy	BHM 07:28	DFW 09:40	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3361 Envoy	BHM 09:22	DFW 11:23	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4210 Envoy	BHM 15:22	DFW 17:27	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5530 PSA	BHM 12:15	DFW 14:13	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5316 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 16:24	DFW 18:29	15%	5%	0.7%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON