Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3006 BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 3685 BHM 10:16 → DTW 13:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3006 Delta Flight history →	BHM 06:25	DTW 09:27	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 5505 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BHM 10:26	DTW 13:31	5%	2%	0.6%	68%
DL 4990 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BHM 16:50	DTW 19:58	8%	3%	0.7%	56%
DL 3685 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BHM 10:16	DTW 13:20	9%	4%	0.5%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON