Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1035 Southwest	BHM 12:15	HOU 14:13	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 816 Southwest	BHM 12:02	HOU 13:55	13%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 52m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BHM 05:17 → ATL 07:19DL 2162	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 28m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:56 → HOU 14:07DL 1195	6h 39m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 51m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON