Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 1546 at 07:12, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1546 Southwest	BHM 07:12	MCO 09:49	7%	2%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:20 → ATL 07:32DL 2162	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	4h 37m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664	4h 45m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:51 → MCO 14:22DL 1576	5h 54m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372	4h 04m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 10:35 → MCO 13:08DL 1747	5h 43m	96%	82%
American Details →	BHM 06:00 → PHL 09:20AA 5218 · flown by PSA	1h 39m Philadelphia	PHL 10:59 → MCO 13:36AA 3268	6h 36m	97%	82%
American Details →	BHM 06:05 → MIA 09:07AA 3423 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Miami	MIA 10:47 → MCO 12:02AA 2587	4h 57m	97%	81%
United Details →	BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008	6h 45m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON