Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: AA 3423 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day


AA 3423 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 06:05	MIA 09:07	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 3909 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 15:33	MIA 18:38	30%	6%	0.8%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:16DL 2162	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 44m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 09:31 → MIA 11:33DL 2836	4h 18m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 28m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → MIA 15:26DL 1323	4h 56m	99%	86%
American Details →	BHM 05:24 → DFW 07:38AA 4186 · flown by Envoy	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:58 → MIA 12:56AA 1219	6h 32m	97%	85%
American Details →	BHM 06:00 → PHL 09:20AA 5218 · flown by PSA	2h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 11:23 → MIA 14:24AA 1989	7h 24m	97%	85%
American Details →	BHM 07:55 → CLT 10:25AA 5253 · flown by PSA	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 13:34 → MIA 15:41AA 1198	6h 46m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	5h 13m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON