Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 6255 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–21%.

Safest bet that day OO 6255 BHM 06:42 → ORD 08:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5727 BHM 14:30 → ORD 16:54 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6255 SkyWest	BHM 06:42	ORD 08:58	9%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 5011 SkyWest	BHM 06:33	ORD 08:58	10%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 4651 SkyWest	BHM 07:08	ORD 09:27	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6258 SkyWest	BHM 13:31	ORD 15:55	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
G7 4185 GoJet	BHM 18:12	ORD 20:19	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 5727 SkyWest	BHM 14:30	ORD 16:54	21%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON