Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 5218 at 06:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5218 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 06:00	PHL 09:20	6%	3%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:20 → ATL 07:32DL 2162	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	7h 04m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 34m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 32m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 30m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	6h 34m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:16 → DTW 13:20DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	5h 27m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	6h 10m	98%	87%
American Details →	BHM 06:05 → MIA 09:07AA 3423 · flown by Envoy	2h 12m Miami	MIA 11:19 → PHL 14:11AA 1918	7h 06m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON