Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 2247 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BIL 06:00	SEA 07:12	6%	4%	0.0%	94%
AS 2336 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BIL 11:45	SEA 12:55	13%	7%	6.2%	87%
AS 2055 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BIL 13:45	SEA 14:55	13%	4%	0.0%	87%
AS 2084 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BIL 19:22	SEA 20:35	16%	3%	0.9%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON