Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 1186 at 13:03, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1186 Southwest	BNA 13:03	ABQ 14:53	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355	3h 37m Los Angeles	LAX 20:47 → ABQ 23:48DL 4098 · flown by SkyWest	9h 49m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:05 → SLC 19:40DL 2205	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:45 → ABQ 22:30DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	95%	91%
Southwest Details →	BNA 14:43 → DAL 16:34WN 486	3h 44m Dallas	DAL 20:18 → ABQ 21:27WN 3680	7h 44m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:22 → PHX 08:06WN 635	1h 03m Phoenix	PHX 09:09 → ABQ 11:22WN 4896	6h 00m	96%	90%
United Details →	BNA 17:19 → DEN 19:08UA 2201	2h 02m Denver	DEN 21:10 → ABQ 22:54UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	96%	88%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:47 → ABQ 11:41AA 3586 · flown by Envoy	6h 40m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109	6h 43m	99%	88%
United Details →	BNA 08:32 → DEN 10:29UA 1716	3h 28m Denver	DEN 13:57 → ABQ 15:26UA 1594	7h 54m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON