Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1001 BNA 06:12 → AUS 08:27 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3945 BNA 18:48 → AUS 21:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1001 Southwest	BNA 06:12	AUS 08:27	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1130 Southwest	BNA 09:25	AUS 11:29	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4146 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 07:05	AUS 09:31	6%	3%	0.5%	87%
WN 450 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:32	AUS 22:43	7%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 4116 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 11:22	AUS 13:51	7%	3%	0.5%	86%
WN 4728 Southwest	BNA 12:31	AUS 14:42	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4778 Southwest	BNA 16:34	AUS 18:44	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 18:48	AUS 21:19	9%	3%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON