tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 816 Southwest BNA 10:26 BHM 11:26 7% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3966 Southwest BNA 20:40 BHM 21:41 9% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 6h 00m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164 3h 39m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 12:11 → MDW 13:39WN 573 3h 02m Chicago MDW 16:41 → BHM 18:20WN 1548 6h 09m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012 5h 52m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557 2h 59m Detroit DTW 19:45 → BHM 20:39DL 3145 6h 36m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 21:18 → BHM 21:21DL 2257 4h 50m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163 5h 22m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484 5h 28m 99% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON