Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 806 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day B6 806 BNA 05:56 → BOS 09:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 671 BNA 14:34 → BOS 18:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 05:56	BOS 09:38	5%	1%	0.7%	93%
DL 2509 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:30	BOS 11:11	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BNA 11:15	BOS 14:59	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
B6 1806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 09:10	BOS 12:49	9%	2%	0.7%	67%
WN 2957 Southwest	BNA 10:46	BOS 14:13	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
B6 406 JetBlue	BNA 16:20	BOS 20:03	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 392 Southwest	BNA 19:55	BOS 23:31	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:35	BOS 21:19	14%	3%	0.6%	64%
WN 671 Southwest	BNA 14:34	BOS 18:04	19%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON