tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 271 Southwest BNA 11:48 BUF 14:39 13% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 3413 Southwest BNA 12:54 BUF 15:53 16% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 01m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:22 → IAD 11:13UA 1709 1h 52m Dulles IAD 13:05 → BUF 14:41UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 19m 98% 87%
JetBlueDetails → BNA 05:57 → BOS 09:28B6 806 2h 33m Boston BOS 12:01 → BUF 13:49B6 915 6h 52m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:31 → JFK 10:53DL 4916 · flown by Endeavor 2h 32m New York JFK 13:25 → BUF 14:46DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 6h 15m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 08:02 → ATL 10:15DL 2802 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → BUF 14:51DL 2266 5h 49m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 7h 21m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:40 → JFK 14:01DL 4919 · flown by Endeavor 3h 10m New York JFK 17:11 → BUF 18:32DL 5250 · flown by Endeavor 6h 52m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 15:39 → BUF 17:44DL 2050 5h 50m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON