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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 458 Southwest BNA 13:43 BUR 16:13 15% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3837 Southwest BNA 12:48 BUR 15:15 16% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:21 → PHX 08:12WN 635 1h 56m Phoenix PHX 10:08 → BUR 11:43WN 4938 7h 22m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 45m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 46m Salt Lake City SLC 11:01 → BUR 12:12DL 1783 6h 37m 87% 81%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:03 → SFO 10:49UA 626 3h 01m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 9h 14m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → BNA 17:00 → SLC 19:29DL 2205 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339 6h 48m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → BNA 14:29 → DEN 16:29UA 1766 2h 59m Denver DEN 19:28 → BUR 20:58UA 2411 8h 29m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:00 → DFW 07:08AA 2787 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:04 → BUR 11:27AA 1208 8h 27m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 15:29 → DEN 17:16WN 500 2h 59m Denver DEN 20:15 → BUR 21:46WN 1226 8h 17m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BNA 09:25 → SEA 12:26AS 623 52m Seattle SEA 13:18 → BUR 15:49AS 529 8h 24m 63% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON