Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1463 BNA 06:02 → BWI 08:58 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3844 BNA 17:20 → BWI 20:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1463 Southwest	BNA 06:02	BWI 08:58	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 8500 Southwest	BNA 06:12	BWI 09:08	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3938 Southwest	BNA 08:45	BWI 11:38	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 460 Southwest	BNA 11:59	BWI 14:51	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 462 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:06	BWI 16:58	6%	2%	0.5%	86%
WN 3844 Southwest	BNA 17:20	BWI 20:14	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON