Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 966 BNA 08:26 → CLT 11:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1136 BNA 15:52 → CLT 18:07 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 966 American Flight history →	BNA 08:26	CLT 11:10	6%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 1747 American	BNA 06:57	CLT 09:32	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3535 Southwest	BNA 10:23	CLT 12:43	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 3328 American Flight history →	BNA 11:52	CLT 14:10	8%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 2940 American	BNA 06:33	CLT 08:55	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 519 American Flight history →	BNA 21:59	CLT 00:21	12%	3%	0.7%	59%
WN 4136 Southwest	BNA 19:15	CLT 21:33	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1108 American	BNA 15:14	CLT 17:31	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1136 American	BNA 15:52	CLT 18:07	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON