Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4666 at 10:26 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4666 BNA 10:26 → CMH 12:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4907 BNA 18:49 → CMH 21:06 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4666 Southwest	BNA 10:26	CMH 12:49	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 481 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:22	CMH 12:48	8%	1%	0.4%	42%
WN 1169 Southwest	BNA 15:42	CMH 18:06	15%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4907 Southwest	BNA 18:49	CMH 21:06	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON