Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 482 BNA 06:17 → DAL 08:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3065 BNA 18:38 → DAL 20:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 482 Southwest	BNA 06:17	DAL 08:13	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 973 Southwest	BNA 08:17	DAL 10:13	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4814 Southwest	BNA 11:38	DAL 13:29	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 485 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:52	DAL 14:42	7%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 486 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:43	DAL 16:34	8%	2%	0.6%	76%
WN 488 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:37	DAL 22:26	9%	2%	0.6%	48%
WN 3065 Southwest	BNA 18:38	DAL 20:32	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON