Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3039 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3039 BNA 06:02 → DCA 08:57 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4181 BNA 16:05 → DCA 18:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3039 Southwest	BNA 06:02	DCA 08:57	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
YX 4766 Republic	BNA 06:04	DCA 09:17	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 5835 Republic	BNA 06:38	DCA 09:47	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5857 Republic	BNA 12:19	DCA 15:20	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 490 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 09:16	DCA 12:01	7%	2%	0.5%	71%
AA 4374 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 15:05	DCA 18:14	7%	2%	0.7%	73%
YX 5861 Republic	BNA 16:58	DCA 20:02	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4993 Southwest	BNA 13:07	DCA 15:54	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3992 Southwest	BNA 21:03	DCA 23:50	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3765 Envoy	BNA 16:33	DCA 19:30	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 10:56	DCA 13:59	13%	4%	0.9%	60%
WN 4181 Southwest	BNA 16:05	DCA 18:50	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON