Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 495 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 495 BNA 06:30 → DEN 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2201 BNA 17:19 → DEN 19:07 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 495 Southwest	BNA 06:30	DEN 08:23	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 496 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:24	DEN 10:04	6%	1%	0.4%	82%
UA 1716 United Flight history →	BNA 08:32	DEN 10:28	8%	2%	0.5%	89%
WN 497 Southwest	BNA 13:42	DEN 15:27	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 499 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:35	DEN 22:23	9%	2%	0.5%	66%
F9 1401 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 15:01	DEN 17:15	11%	3%	0.8%	77%
WN 500 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:30	DEN 17:10	12%	2%	0.4%	65%
UA 1766 United Flight history →	BNA 14:29	DEN 16:29	13%	3%	0.5%	80%
WN 4756 Southwest	BNA 18:00	DEN 19:43	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2201 United Flight history →	BNA 17:19	DEN 19:07	17%	3%	0.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON