Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2583 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15%.

Safest bet that day AA 2583 BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1109 BNA 18:21 → DFW 20:24 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2583 American Flight history →	BNA 07:04	DFW 09:18	5%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 2787 American Flight history →	BNA 06:01	DFW 08:20	5%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 849 American	BNA 06:02	DFW 08:28	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2510 American	BNA 08:47	DFW 10:46	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1103 American Flight history →	BNA 10:00	DFW 12:02	8%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	BNA 12:57	DFW 15:03	8%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 1181 American	BNA 18:12	DFW 20:18	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1084 American	BNA 16:22	DFW 18:30	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1109 American	BNA 18:21	DFW 20:24	15%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON