Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2439 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 2439 BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1747 BNA 18:59 → DTW 21:36 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2439 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:05	DTW 08:46	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 2682 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:06	DTW 12:46	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:03	DTW 16:46	6%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:40	DTW 20:24	9%	2%	0.6%	76%
WN 1747 Southwest	BNA 18:59	DTW 21:36	15%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON