Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 216 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 216 BNA 05:58 → EWR 09:24 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2677 BNA 15:44 → EWR 19:07 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 216 United	BNA 05:58	EWR 09:24	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3408 Republic	BNA 07:02	EWR 10:28	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
UA 2485 United	BNA 09:16	EWR 12:33	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2174 United Flight history →	BNA 13:24	EWR 16:46	11%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 499 United Flight history →	BNA 19:25	EWR 22:48	13%	3%	0.6%	58%
UA 2677 United	BNA 15:44	EWR 19:07	18%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON