Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 541 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 541 BNA 07:02 → FLL 10:28 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2582 BNA 14:27 → FLL 17:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 541 Southwest	BNA 07:02	FLL 10:28	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
B6 2482 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 07:50	FLL 11:04	7%	3%	0.9%	95%
WN 863 Southwest	BNA 17:03	FLL 20:24	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1317 Southwest	BNA 14:24	FLL 17:37	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 2582 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 14:27	FLL 17:41	15%	8%	1.6%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON