Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 771 BNA 10:18 → GSP 12:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 171 BNA 18:53 → GSP 21:04 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 771 Southwest	BNA 10:18	GSP 12:27	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 238 Southwest	BNA 14:32	GSP 16:41	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 171 Southwest	BNA 18:53	GSP 21:04	16%	2%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON