Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 564 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 564 BNA 06:12 → HOU 08:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 527 BNA 16:02 → HOU 18:04 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 564 Southwest	BNA 06:12	HOU 08:21	7%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 565 Southwest	BNA 08:18	HOU 10:29	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4081 Southwest	BNA 09:22	HOU 11:25	10%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1661 Southwest	BNA 12:43	HOU 14:54	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 570 Southwest	BNA 20:41	HOU 22:50	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1109 Southwest	BNA 18:03	HOU 20:12	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2961 Southwest	BNA 20:57	HOU 22:54	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 527 Southwest	BNA 16:02	HOU 18:04	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON