Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1709 BNA 08:22 → IAD 11:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2382 BNA 18:26 → IAD 21:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1709 United Flight history →	BNA 08:22	IAD 11:10	4%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 2125 United Flight history →	BNA 13:35	IAD 16:28	7%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 2382 United	BNA 18:26	IAD 21:18	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON