Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 891 BNA 06:28 → LAX 08:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 3742 BNA 21:22 → LAX 23:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 891 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:28	LAX 08:40	5%	1%	0.7%	92%
WN 4994 Southwest	BNA 08:02	LAX 10:20	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 355 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:59	LAX 17:10	8%	2%	0.7%	84%
WN 3742 Southwest	BNA 21:22	LAX 23:44	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	BNA 10:00 → DFW 12:02AA 1103	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:07 → LAX 14:11AA 1275	6h 11m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON