Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1071 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1071 BNA 05:57 → LGA 09:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4660 BNA 17:19 → LGA 20:43 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1071 Delta	BNA 05:57	LGA 09:42	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2746 Southwest	BNA 06:48	LGA 10:02	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 09:01	LGA 12:25	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 551 Southwest	BNA 09:48	LGA 13:15	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3314 American	BNA 06:09	LGA 09:39	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4622 Republic	BNA 10:30	LGA 14:07	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 5617 Republic	BNA 12:40	LGA 16:06	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 4411 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 13:15	LGA 16:41	9%	2%	0.8%	86%
WN 719 Southwest	BNA 19:41	LGA 23:04	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3644 Southwest	BNA 14:00	LGA 17:23	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1649 Delta	BNA 16:53	LGA 20:11	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:19	LGA 20:43	18%	3%	0.9%	67%
DL 4638 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 06:00	LGA 09:32	25%	10%	0.0%	75%
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 12:40	LGA 16:17	27%	12%	5.5%	73%
DL 5022 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 19:59	LGA 23:31	34%	16%	20.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON