Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:22, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1390 Southwest	BNA 17:36	LGB 19:53	16%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 06:22 → PHX 08:06WN 635	1h 11m Phoenix	PHX 09:17 → LGB 10:43WN 4982	6h 21m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	BNA 14:20 → PHX 15:55WN 639	3h 29m Phoenix	PHX 19:24 → LGB 20:46WN 550	8h 26m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 24m	93%	83%
Southwest Details →	BNA 15:30 → DEN 17:10WN 500	2h 12m Denver	DEN 19:22 → LGB 20:46WN 1261	7h 16m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:05 → SLC 19:40DL 2205	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:33 → LGB 21:31DL 1167	6h 26m	90%	79%
Alaska Details →	BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → LGB 14:39AS 717	9h 37m	100%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON