Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 557 BNA 08:07 → MCI 09:53 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3223 BNA 20:56 → MCI 22:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 557 Southwest	BNA 08:07	MCI 09:53	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 558 Southwest	BNA 12:48	MCI 14:30	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 560 Southwest	BNA 14:45	MCI 16:32	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1150 Southwest	BNA 15:37	MCI 17:18	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3223 Southwest	BNA 20:56	MCI 22:37	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON