Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1014 at 05:42 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1014 BNA 05:42 → MCO 08:34 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 588 BNA 15:21 → MCO 18:16 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1014 Southwest	BNA 05:42	MCO 08:34	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1252 Southwest	BNA 07:52	MCO 10:44	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1291 Southwest	BNA 11:33	MCO 14:29	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
F9 1286 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 11:12	MCO 14:25	11%	5%	1.3%	91%
WN 564 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:35	MCO 16:29	11%	3%	1.8%	98%
WN 569 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:18	MCO 22:07	22%	6%	1.9%	52%
WN 494 Southwest	BNA 16:39	MCO 19:23	22%	6%	2.1%	no record
F9 3560 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 17:34	MCO 20:42	25%	10%	2.1%	70%
WN 588 Southwest	BNA 15:21	MCO 18:16	25%	7%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON