Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 572 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 572 BNA 06:07 → MDW 07:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 576 BNA 18:35 → MDW 20:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 572 Southwest	BNA 06:07	MDW 07:43	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 357 Southwest	BNA 09:11	MDW 10:51	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 573 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:11	MDW 13:39	8%	1%	0.5%	98%
WN 4549 Southwest	BNA 20:46	MDW 22:20	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 575 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:45	MDW 17:15	12%	2%	0.5%	44%
WN 576 Southwest	BNA 18:35	MDW 20:05	14%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON